On Monday (October 14th), the U.S. September PPI remained unchanged, with the decline in gasoline prices suppressing the rise in prices, indicating that inflation is further easing, supporting the view that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month. A report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics last Friday showed that the September PPI increased at the same rate as in August, after the index rose by 0.2% month-on-month in August. The September PPI increased by 1.8% year-on-year, the smallest increase since February this year. Many economists prefer to use a less volatile indicator that excludes the impact of food, energy, and trade, which rose by 0.1%, the smallest increase since May 2023.

The PPI data was released shortly after the more closely watched CPI data, which showed that CPI inflation in September was slightly higher than expected, driven by rising housing, food, and clothing prices. Federal Reserve officials will consider these two reports as they plan their path to lower interest rates. Economists often analyze categories in the PPI data related to the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the PCE price index, but these categories have mixed performance. The U.S. dollar index fluctuated to 103.00; non-U.S. currencies rebounded, with the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar reaching 0.6740, the euro against the U.S. dollar fluctuated to around 1.0920, and the offshore renminbi reached 7.08. Spot gold rose to near $2,656, and spot silver came to $31.20. Crude oil rebounded to near $75.00.

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Fundamentals: Although at the last meeting, Governor Lagarde did not support a rate cut in October, their stance began to shift after disappointing PMI and overall inflation falling below 2%, prompting market participants to increase their bets on a rate cut. Currently, investors have almost fully priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut at Thursday's meeting, while also expecting another rate cut in December. Therefore, a mere 25 basis point rate cut is unlikely to shake the euro.

Technical analysis: The euro against the U.S. dollar fluctuated and rebounded at the H4 level, but it is still running below the 48-day bull-bear line. In addition, the MACD double line and volume column expanded below the zero axis. There will be no new macroeconomic forecasts released at this meeting, but Lagarde will definitely be asked about what changes have occurred in the economic and inflation outlook since the September meeting.

Resistance and support levels:

First resistance level: 1.0980 First support level: 1.0870

Second resistance level: 1.1030 Second support level: 1.0820Fundamentals: The Institute of Chartered Accountants in England has indicated that the UK's economic growth data confirms a reassuring recovery in output for August, suggesting that a rate cut by the Bank of England in November is not a foregone conclusion. The return of activity in key sectors such as retail and manufacturing, along with eased inflation and improved weather, has helped the economy regain growth. This implies that a rate cut is not inevitable, as it might provide sufficient encouragement for some rate setters to vote against a looser policy.

Technical Analysis: The British Pound against the US Dollar has rebounded at the H4 level and is trading below the 48-day moving average. Additionally, the MACD lines and volume bars are converging below the zero axis. Increasing caution among UK consumers and businesses due to geopolitical uncertainties and potential tax increases is hindering the growth of real income.

Resistance and Support Levels:

First Resistance: 1.3110 First Support: 1.3000

Second Resistance: 1.3160 Second Support: 1.2950

Fundamentals: The US Dollar against the Japanese Yen has risen to a 10-week high as the market gains confidence in the Federal Reserve's patience in easing policy. The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers near a two-month high, with investors further reducing bets on US rate cuts for this year following the release of unexpectedly strong employment data. The US Dollar is regaining its dominance, primarily due to the continued strong performance of the US economy. An unexpected upward movement in the US CPI may force the Federal Reserve to question its confidence in the inflation trajectory.

Technical Analysis: The US Dollar against the Japanese Yen is hovering at the H4 level and trading above the 48-day moving average. Additionally, the MACD volume bars and lines are contracting above the zero axis. The recent string of strong employment data has reignited the notion of American exceptionalism. The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes confirm the Fed's emphasis on maintaining a healthy labor market.Resistance and Support Levels:

First Resistance Level: 150.00 First Support Level: 148.40

Second Resistance Level: 150.80 Second Support Level: 147.50

Fundamentals: In the absence of significant Australian data or speeches from Reserve Bank of Australia officials, the movement of risk and the US dollar has been leading the Australian dollar's trajectory. The weak US job market overnight has increased expectations for continued rate cuts in November, putting pressure on the US dollar and providing a temporary respite for the Australian dollar, which has been on a downward trend recently. If the disinflation process stalls, Australia may need to implement fiscal austerity. The IMF has urged Australia to adopt a comprehensive approach to address housing affordability issues and supports the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to maintain a restrictive policy stance.

Technical Analysis: The Australian dollar against the US dollar has rebounded at the H4 level and returned close to the 48-day moving average, which is the dividing line between bulls and bears. Additionally, the MACD lines and volume bars are converging below the zero axis. The rebound in commodity prices, driven by China's stimulus measures, has reinforced the market's positive outlook on the Australian dollar.

Resistance and Support Levels:

First Resistance Level: 0.6790 First Support Level: 0.6700

Second Resistance Level: 0.6830 Second Support Level: 0.6660Fundamentals: The World Gold Council has published a report stating that global central bank demand for gold has slowed down. Although the overall demand for gold from central banks worldwide has retreated from its peak at the beginning of 2024, it remains in a positive growth trend. According to the World Gold Council, in August of this year, only four central banks increased their gold reserves. So far in 2024, the Central Bank of Turkey has become the largest official net buyer of gold, accumulating a net increase of 52 tons, which is approximately 35% of its total foreign exchange reserves. Central banks from emerging economies account for 70% of the global central bank net purchases.

Technical Analysis: Gold has experienced a震荡 rebound at the H4 level and has returned above the 48-day long-short boundary line. In addition, the MACD lines and volume bars are converging near the zero axis. Although the performance of gold prices is not the primary strategic driver for global central banks' gold purchases, its sustained upward trend may affect the global central banks' gold buying posture.

Resistance and Support Levels:

First Resistance Level: 2674.00 First Support Level: 2637.00

Second Resistance Level: 2695.00 Second Support Level: 2610.00

Fundamentals: The crude oil market has been influenced by multiple factors, with significant price fluctuations. Despite a slight decline in oil prices last Friday, overall, crude oil prices have risen for the second consecutive week. The main drivers in the market are the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the impact of Hurricane Milton on fuel demand in Florida. The market is watching for retaliatory actions from Israel; while no one can predict these actions with certainty, this uncertainty has already provided support for crude oil prices.Technical Analysis: Crude oil on the H4 timeframe continues to oscillate and operates near the 48-day bull-bear line. Additionally, the MACD lines and volume bars form a shrinking death cross near the zero axis. If Israel decides to strike Iran's oil facilities, it could further push up oil prices, especially against the backdrop of a tight global crude oil supply.

Resistance and Support Levels:

First Resistance Level: 77.00 First Support Level: 72.00

Second Resistance Level: 79.00 Second Support Level: 70.00