Gold's strong performance on Friday, holding above 2652, indicates a short-term bias towards strength, with 2624 marking the transition from weakness to bullishness. Thus, 2652 signifies a shift to a stronger bullish trend. However, the market did not continue its downward trend after opening lower in the morning session. The level of 2636 is a sign of a short-term shift from strength to weakness in the bullish trend, but the market did not break below this level. Instead, it found support and moved above 2640 to reach new highs again. Therefore, the next level to watch is 2673; if it breaks through further, there will be a demand for new highs. However, it is important to be cautious as the continuation of a rapid rise is not likely to be strong, so avoid heavily weighted long positions and look for opportunities to go long when the key support levels are not broken on dips.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) faces strong resistance near 103.2. Although the DXY is driven by safe-haven demand, the rebound may enter a high-level consolidation phase.
Trend: The long-term and medium-term bullish trend remains unchanged, with the short-term outlook continuing to lean towards consolidation with a bullish bias above 2636.
Structure: Continue to monitor the continuation of the rebound structure. The morning session's retest did not reach the desired level, and there may be a tug-of-war and consolidation around the 2670 level.
Advertisement
Pattern: The weekly chart closed with a high hammer, which can only be seen as a hammer for now. If a medium to long bearish candle appears later, it could be a high hanging man pattern. Similar to past consolidations followed by rises, the weekly chart will next show whether it continues to rise or continues to close with a doji. If it rebounds at the beginning of the week, there may be consolidation in the middle, and it may rise and then fall at the end of the week. On the daily chart, after holding above 2624, it is considered a transition from weak to bullish. The strong bullish continuation after Friday's medium-long candle, and the morning session's retest to confirm support, increases the likelihood of breaking to new highs. The channel that was adjusted down from 2685 has been disrupted, returning to a bullish channel. On the 4-hour chart, after holding above 2624 and rising quickly, the slope begins to slow as resistance starts to build at higher levels. The next focus is on the震荡上行 trend. The area above 2673-8 will be a strong resistance area, and the support has moved up to the 2636-45 area.
Strength: Gold探底 near 2642 in the morning session, quickly recovered and broke through the 2662 new high, which is a strong situation. However, it did not continue during the European session and instead retraced, which is not extremely strong but rather a consolidation with a bullish bias.
Key Support: 2652, 2645, 2636
Key Resistance: 2673, 2685, 2700
Intraday Thoughts:
Gold should pay attention to divergence in the short term. If the new high after divergence is not sustained, there is a possibility of adjustment.Backtesting focuses on the 2647-52 area for stabilization and low-long opportunities, with a defense at 2640 and an upward target at 2662-73. For a second retest, pay attention to the 2630-24 area for participation.
If the European session continues to break higher at 2673, then long positions should only focus on the area near 2660 for short-term participation, with an upward target at 2673-85.
For the first test of the 2673-78 area, a short position can be taken with a stop loss at 2685, looking downwards to the 2666-58 area.
Other strategies will be prompted in real-time based on the actual market patterns.