Pre-market News Summary
Macro:
Data released by the General Administration of Customs shows that in the first three quarters of 2024,China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 32.33 trillion yuan,breaking through the 32 trillion yuan mark for the first time in the same period of history,with a year-on-year increase of 5.3%.Exports amounted to 18.62 trillion yuan,up by 6.2%,while imports reached 13.71 trillion yuan,up by 4.1%.
International oil prices plummeted across the board,with the November US oil contract falling by 4.9% to $71.86 per barrel.The December Brent oil contract dropped by 4.71% to $75.32 per barrel.International precious metal futures generally closed lower,with COMEX gold futures down by 0.39% to $2,665.8 per ounce,and COMEX silver futures down by 1.12% to $31.4 per ounce.
The three major US stock indices all closed higher,with the Nasdaq Composite up by 0.87%,the S&P 500 Index up by 0.77%,and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 0.47%.Among them,Nvidia rose by more than 2%,setting a new historical closing high.Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell,with the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index down by 2.09%.
Industry:
According to monitoring by Shenzhen's Beike Research Institute,from October 1st to 13th,the average daily transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shenzhen increased by 182% compared to September,reaching the highest level so far this year and the highest in nearly four years.
On October 14th,the China Photovoltaic Industry Association organized a symposium in Shanghai titled "Preventing Vicious In-industry Competition," where they discussed measures to orderly resolve supply and demand imbalances and clear excess production capacity.
OPEC lowered its oil demand growth forecast for this year and next for the third consecutive month,belatedly recognizing the slowdown in global fuel demand.In its monthly report,OPEC stated that global oil consumption will increase by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2024,an increase of about 2%,which is 106,000 barrels per day less than the previous forecast.
Forward Outlook:October 17th - US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 12th,US Retail Sales MoM for September
October 18th - China's Q3 GDP,China's September Economic Data
III.Public Opinion Hotspots
Debt-to-Equity AMC - National Development and Reform Commission: Ensure necessary fiscal expenditure,increase the positive promotion to economic development,strengthen support for local debt swaps,and resolve debt risks;
Huawei HarmonyOS - Huawei's Mate 70 series of smartphones have entered full-scale mass production,equipped with the pure HarmonyOS system,and may officially hit the market in November;
GB200 Supply Chain/Copper Connections - Blackwell's demand is astonishing!Nvidia's orders for the next year are already sold out; (Kaiwang Technology,Shenyu Shares,Kapai Billion,Luxshare Precision,Megalong Interconnect,etc.);
Commercial Spaceflight - Starship (S30+B12) conducted its fifth test flight,with the first stage of the heavy booster returning after 6 minutes and successfully being captured and recovered by the launch tower's mechanical arm "chopsticks".
IV.Hotspot Research Reports and Minutes
1.[Open Source Communications] Blackwell servers are being shipped in an orderly manner,Tesla's CyberCab has been officially released,and the AI computing power industry chain is看好.
[Event]**Blackwell Servers Ship in an orderly manner,driving a new round of AI development.Blackwell chip servers are shipped in an orderly fashion,with the computing power industry chain continuously expanding.On October 8,2024,Foxconn's parent company,Hon Hai Precision Industry,
held the 2024 Hon Hai Technology Day.The company's chairman stated that Hon Hai and its supply chain are ready to become "the first company to mass-produce and ship (Nvidia chips) GB200," and are currently building the world's largest GB200 chip production base for Nvidia in Mexico.It is expected that by 2025,the production capacity of Nvidia's NVL72 servers will reach 20,000 units.Additionally,the chairman indicated that the GB200 server is planned to be shipped in the middle to late fourth quarter of 2024.On October 8,Microsoft Azure Cloud became the first cloud provider to operate the Blackwell system,equipped with GB200 AI servers,paired with IB networks and liquid cooling for operation.On October 9,OpenAI announced that it had received the first batch of engineering version DGX B200 servers.With the orderly shipment of B-series AI servers,it is expected to drive a new round of high computing power infrastructure construction,supporting the continuous iteration of generative AI.**
**The Nobel Prize falls in the AI field,with AI having a profound impact on social development.The 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to John J.Hopfield and Geoffrey E.Hinton for their fundamental discoveries and inventions in using artificial neural networks for machine learning.The Hopfield network and Hinton's Boltzmann machine are important foundations for the vigorous development of modern deep learning.Half of the Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded to Demis Hassabis and John Michael Krop,for their contributions to computational protein design,using AI technology to predict the structure of almost all known proteins.With the continuous iteration and development of AI models,the reliability in professional fields is continuously improving,which is expected to accelerate the empowerment of various industries and drive the continuous growth of inference computing power demand.**
**AMD announces MI325X,MI355X parameters,and releases the first UEC AI network card to help AI cluster expansion.AMD releases MI325X GPU,server CPU,AI network card,and DPU.On October 10,AMD unveiled the AMD Instinct MI325X GPU at AMD Advancing AI 2024,featuring 153 billion transistors,using the CDNA 3 architecture,256GB HBM3E memory,with a memory bandwidth of 6TB/s,FP8 peak performance reaching 2.6 PFLOPS,FP16 peak performance reaching 1.3 PFLOPS,AI peak computing power reaching 21 PFLOPS,memory capacity 1.8 times that of H200,memory bandwidth,FP16,and FP8 peak theoretical computing power are 1.3 times that of H200.In 2025,the MI350 series using the CDNA 4 architecture will be launched,with MI355X's FP8 and FP16 performance increasing by 80% compared to MI325X,FP16 peak performance reaching 2.3 PFLOPS,FP8 peak performance reaching 4.6 PFLOPS,FP6 and FP4 peak performance reaching 9.2 PFLOPS,AI peak computing power will reach 74 PFLOPS,TDP rising to 1000W,and the MI400 series will use a more advanced CDNA architecture.The company expects MI325X to be fully produced in the fourth quarter of 2024,and MI355X is planned to be shipped in the second half of 2025.**
**AMD releases the first UEC backend AI network card.On the networking side,AMD's vice president stated that networking has become the key to constraining AI system performance,with an average of 30% of training time spent waiting for networking,and in training and distributed inference,communication accounts for 40%-75% of the time.From a TCO perspective,compared to IB networks,UEC Ethernet networks have decreased by 50%; in terms of scalability,Ethernet can support ultra-large-scale cluster deployments of up to 1 million+ GPUs,far exceeding the 48,000 expansion limit of IB networks.AMD has released the industry's first backend network AI cards supporting the UEC Ultra Ethernet Consortium,Pensando Pollara 400 and Pensando Salina 400 DPU,supporting 400G ports,both of which will provide samples in the fourth quarter of 2024 and are expected to be launched in the first half of 2025.**
**Tesla CyberCab taxi debuts,with the development of autonomous driving and humanoid robots accelerating.On October 11,Tesla held the We Robot event,where the Tesla Robotaxi autonomous driving taxi CyberCab was officially released.It features two seats and butterfly doors,without a steering wheel and pedals,and comes with inductive charging capabilities.CEO Musk stated that the cost of CyberCab vehicles is expected to be less than $30,000,with the hope of achieving fully unsupervised autonomous driving (FSD) in Texas and California by 2025.It is expected to go into production in 2026 and be massively rolled out in 2027.Currently,the operating cost of CyberCab is still high,at about $1 per mile,and it is expected to drop to around $0.2 per mile in the future.There will also be a CyberCab 2 in the future.In addition,Tesla also released the autonomous driving Model Y and RoboVan (autonomous driving van),which can carry 20 people and cargo,significantly reducing travel costs to about 10-15 cents per mile.The humanoid robot Optimus has also made significant progress,capable of handling many daily tasks,with a single cost between $20,000 and $30,000.We believe that the implementation of Tesla's FSD technology and embodied intelligent humanoid robots requires a large amount of data training,which is expected to continue to drive the demand for AIDC and computing power infrastructure.**
